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Oscar night predictions? Ho hum

On Sunday, Feb. 29, one of the year’s biggest cliff-hangers—no, not the last installment of Survivor—will unfold on American television screens, signaling not only a new crop of entertainment-industry heroes but the start of a weeks-long return to theaters by previously dormant moviegoers.

It’s the annual observance of Academy Awards night, which typically triggers a big, post-event rush to movie houses so that film devotees can see for themselves what all the fuss was about.

This year, of course, promises to be no different. You’ll be mystified by what you consider a few thoroughly baffling choices and, at some point, begin to wonder if the Academy members will emerge with rays of the early morning sun shining down on them.

Hopefully, those words “wrap it up” flashing on the Teleprompter will keep the acceptance speeches short and prevent us from nodding off just before the long-awaited final moment.

Speaking of sleep, let’s be honest: Watching the Academy Awards can be downright boring unless you have a vested interest. That’s why I recommend you print out a Nominee Ballot available at www.oscars.com/nomineelist.html an hour or so before the show and pick your own slate of winners.

By the way, in case you’re still clueless as to who those winners might be, I’ve once again compiled my own list of prospects, which I humbly share with you. I’ve been lucky in the past—and remember, luck is crucial here—but don’t gripe if my selections don’t sync with the Academy’s.

Here are my top 10 picks for this year’s Oscars:

Best Picture: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. Why? The Rings trilogy is a cinematic masterpiece that captures the vision and spirit of Tolkien’s strange and engrossing supernatural epic. The Academy waited for the last of the three installments before it would consider presenting this important award to Peter Jackson.

Best Director: Peter Jackson (Lord of the Rings). Jackson deserves this recognition for orchestrating thousands of incoherent moving parts (there were more than 20,000 extras) and making visual poetry. Besides, how can you award him Best Picture and not give him the award for Best Director?

Best Actor in a Leading role: Sean Penn (Mystic River). I’m going out on a limb in this category. Bill Murray (Lost In Translation), one of my favorite comedians, is expected to win. However, Murray was sleepwalking through the film, and so was I. In contrast, Penn’s performance is powerful and gripping. Mystic River is a must-see film, and Penn is at the top of his game.   

Best Actress in a Leading role: Charlize Theron (Monster).  Theron looks so much like a monster in this film I didn’t recognize her. Her knockout performance will rivet you to your seat and send chills up and down your back. Don’t pick up any hitchhikers.  

Best Actress in a Supporting role:  Shohreh Aghdashloo (House of Sand and Fog).  A veteran Iranian born actress, Aghdashloo superbly telegraphs fear and compassion, anger and understanding in this haunting tragedy. However, Renee Zellweger (Cold Mountain) is expected to win. And, she’s excellent in the role of the resourceful, hard-headed country girl in this Civil War drama. Ellie May meets Coal Miner’s daughter. 

Best Actor in a Supporting role:  Tim Robbins (Mystic River). This is the first time I’ve seen Tim Robbins go for the sublime, brilliantly understating his character’s pivotal role in this suspenseful murder mystery tale. 

Best Animated Feature: Finding Nemo. There’s no competition for this fish that got away.  Nemo represents the perfect marriage between a good story and digital technology.

Best Foreign Language Film:  The Barbarian Invasions. This is a French Canadian film about regrets, parental disappointment, the friction-filled generation gap and dying. Oh, and they threw in some humor as a pick-me-up.  

Costume Design:   Lord of the Rings. Many words come to mind: original, complex, detailed and let’s not forget volume. Heck, this film produced enough costumes to outfit the entire population of Yuma.

Make-up:  Lord of the Rings. Let’s see: 1,600 pair of prosthetic Hobbit feet, 300 handmade wigs, 200 Orc masks, 100 elf ears. These guys could be cosmetic surgeons.

At the end of the Academy Awards, tally up your winners. If you correctly scored 6 out of 10, you could qualify as a member of the Phoenix Film Critics society. If you picked 7 out of 10, you should run right out and buy a lottery ticket. Eight or better: You’re clearly psychic and should apply for my job. Anything higher is virtually impossible. Good luck.

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